When and HOW do you expect the reign of microsoft windows to end ?

Lets define the end of the reign as MS having less than 50% market share.

When and how do you expect it to happen ?

The one rule of business is companies get big, get old, and newcomers take over.

How do you expect it to play out iin the OS arena ?

Will it be Apple and Linux gradually chipping away market share ?
A new OS ?
Will it be gradual ? Or steep (like in a span of 3-4 years) ?
When will this happen ? Next 10 years ? Next 20 years ? Next 30 ...

 

Never...

 

wont happen
Windows has transformed itself in everyday life to be as important as any other necessary media for communication and data transfer.

The only way Microsoft will lose consumer confidence is and will be within top management and/or with CEO/COO's of MS.
Its top management corruption is what will bring down big companies.

Just look at SteveJobs of Apple. He's been in the headlines for the last 2 years for stock option corruption. Backdating the books and lining his own pockets with 7million stocks is the stuffs that bring down big companies.

And Apple will never take anywhere close to half or MS's market. Apples silent admittance of such was due to the implementation of the Intel chip and boot camp in the mac. Its the ole saying... cant beat them...might as well join em.

Lastly, its no doubt now that even hardware manufactures revolve their design and production around MS and what they do. A perfect example is DX10.

 

The only chance of that happening is when OSX can be installed on any laptop. Imagine a thinkpad running osx or an xps with osx!

 

A long, long, long time from now. I think it'll be something new and different from what we have on offer today. Linux is still too difficult for your normal user to install and maintain, and Apple will always be closed source. And when it does happen, it'll be quick. Then after 10 years everyone will hate them for having a dominant market share, and pine for the Microsoft days.

 

-When Linux becomes 100% compatible with all the applications written for microsoft windows.
-When Microsoft's stocks comes crashing down.
-When Microsoft's engineers runs out of creative ideas to spice up "Vienna" and the rest of their releases.
-When computers and laptops are replaced by ultra modern computing devices running some new advanced high security OS (not from Microsoft)

 

not for a long time,

at the earliest I would say 20-30 years

as long as MS really does not screw 3 consecutive OS up, there here to stay.

 

I don't think Microsoft Windows will ever die off. They'll always be the dominant player, in my opinion. But their share of the market will drop for sure, I think.

My estimate: Windows: 45% Linux: 30% Mac OS X: 25%

I'm thinking that'll be in about twenty years...

 

Maybe when Google designs an OS???

 

hard to imagine right now acctualy
its difficult to see something of that nature happening in the immediate future
if it does happen it may happen due to corruption at the higher levels of organization or a huge loss or the boycott of windows by consumers

 

Only when technology completely changes will this happen.

Maybe when Phones become as robust as PCs and people just conect their tiny devices to a large screen and keyboard when needed, then MS will have a problem keeping it's reign. And that isn't too far off. Desktops and Laptops will be a thing of the past sooner than we think.

 

Ever interview for a Microsoft position? They accept only the most brilliant, competent, and dedicated of programmers out of college. With the stranglehold MS has on the OS market already, and the linear evolution of computing technology for the foreseeable future, it'd take a miracle (space aliens visiting earth) to change MS's fortunes.

 

That Miracle might be Google. Don't they have an OS up their sleeves?

 

lol @ Google OS

It'll be nothing more than a self-serving browser filled with adverts, gmail and google search engines

 

See this thread

Really this is o/t too. I say thread merge

 

Thats what most of googles stuff is about, but people seem to love it. Gmail, Search Engine, Google Earth, Google Docs & Spreadsheets ETC: are all used by some major compaines, not to mention the public. They also now own Youtube, Blogger, ETC: Don't put nothing past these guys.

 

thats what im talking about.
Its not really gonna be a operating system as we presume what OS's really are but rather it'll just be an i-face that will encompass all of Googles services.
Sure google is talking about an open source doc application where you can produce and save all ur docs on a mega google server but that'll be the most dangerous and moronic concept if it ever comes to light.
With all good intentions it'll just be a google browser

 

You got to start somewhere, and Google seems to be advancing very fast. In 10 years it wouldn't surprise me at all to see a Google OS.

 

We ll see robots that ll get blue screen death and red ring of doom for sure... M$ will last quite long...

 

They won't be around forever, but it'll take time. No one is expecting an overnight miracle. Governments are slowly turning away from MS now, and more and more home users are looking at alternatives like Linux.

 

Maybe after the next 15-20 years when the way computers are used and are made will change considerably.

 

This is how I see it,
Every business runs MS (or some MS software) and business is money and money rules the world. So MS going anywhere, I don't see it.

 

Microsoft will end when the world is conquered by the Yam.

 

As long as MS continue to offer a better product than its rival's, it will remain as successfull.

 

Rivals? For m$, there aint any rivals.. coz they already monopolized it...

 

Microsoft is secure enough. Anything digital that flows connected in the wire/wireless are all vulnerable... you just build what's gonna hold these intruders from attacks. It's stated in the bible in the river of somewhere... once you spilled everything on it, the rivers and oceans will be contaminated.

All the engineers of microsoft are better at building software from entertainment to security... there are a lot of software developers "outside" MS who can do the same. The FACT is, windows is dominant so most hackers and the like propagates in windows. As they say, cow's dwell in greener pastures. Who would be intered in the less than 10% remaining shares of OS... who will benefit... not me either on my current stat.

In the end... like the Oracle said... anything that has a beginning has an end...

 

I dont think Google will ever make their own OS. If anything they will make a Linux distribution. Many Linux, Firebird, and other open source programmers work and are paid by Google.

I think one thing that can kill M$ is them spreading out too much. They are trying to get into web 2.0 and all that crap and they are not making money of it. Xbox is also losing money last I heared. Not sure that the MS keyboards and mouses are making money. The software can easly compensating even if the other parts make Billions of $ in loses but it is not good and cant go on forever. M$ is looking for another cash cow and cant seem to find one. They created C# to compete with Java and now that new format thats name I forgot to compete with flash. Non is very succesfull right now.

 

C# is successful. look at the job listings and C# beats any other IT realted job positions. Hudson is a great place to find such. C# is a ECMA standard. Java is not. And java, it's not even a full pledge OOP language.

 

Sure people use C# but it has not taken over like MS said it would. Atleast in the companies i know almost all web aplications are programmed with J2EE.

 

The only way it can happen is when Windows is no longer *needed*. Which means, when I can run my Windows apps *reliably* on another OS.

Forget OSX, forget Linux, forget any hypothetical "Google OS". None of these will do the trick, unless they incorporate full compatibility with Windows.
It doesn't matter who has the cleverest programmers or the best OS. What matters is, who has an OS that can run my software? Right now, the answer is Windows. And because the answer is Windows, people keep using WIndows, and the longer people keep using Windows, the more software they'll have that they can only run on Windows. And the more software they have hat only runs on Windows, the less choice they have.

You might as well ask when you think the reign of our current AC sockets or railway tracks end. We keep them, not because they're particularly awesome (tracks that were 2 mm wider would be just as awesome), but because it's a standard. No matter how brilliant your design for a new railway track is, it doesn't stand a chance, because all existing trains happen to use the existing standard.

C# is *hugely* successful. The numbers I've seen indicate that it's already more popular than Java.

asp.net web apps are *very* common. Sure, some stick with Java, just like some stick with C++, C, Cobol or Fortran. But a huge number of *new* business apps (web or otherwise) being developed are made in C#. Far more than are currently being made in Java.

These days, it seems everything from Microsoft becomes an ECMA standard. I'd be much more impressed if it was an ISO standard, since those people actually take the word *standard* seriously... <insert comment about OOXML madness here>

 

Very well said Jalf.

 

The only other way I see of this happening is if Microsoft starts selling off parts of itself to curb high costs (due to their current ever increasing diversified portfolio). Large companies can become shadows of their former self, never again able to retain the market share they once had.

In the automotive world, GM & Ford have already started down this path.

 

with business minded geek bill gates... that's far from happening.

 

But Bill Gates no longer runs Microsoft.

 

Gates is still the biggest shareholder with a bit under 10%. He is no longer CEO and claims to be only the chief developer but I bet Bellmer still consults with Bill on every big decision being made.

 

Yeah, you are probably correct. I just figured Gates was trying to phase himself out over the years.

 

If anti-piracy strategies get to be too good, and if Microsoft insist in protecting their products, and that also includes US policy towards piracy in poor countries, I say Microsoft reign will fall in the next 20 years. I'll explain:
In the undeveloped world, only companies use "legal" software, people just don't have the money to buy it (Software prices on those countries are even higher than in developed ones (because of shipping), but the salaries are 3-10 times lower). Now, if there is a point when they cannot get Windows of Office pirated, they just wont buy it, and in a couple of years everybody will be using Linux.
Nowadays, some companies on those countries actually use Linux, but they have to train their employees, since they are used to use Windows. Therefore, if people switch to Linux in the future, companies will follow (it is free and almost as good as windows).
Now, those undeveloped countries are the 80% of world population (and growing), so make your estimations. If Microsoft have not yet seen this (and then thinking in strategically relaxing their piracy policy), this is how it is going to end for them.

 

I think MS has seen this years ago and has been happy with it. As countries grow the % of pirated software decreases. MS is just trying to make the people who can afford to buy it buy it by annoying them with anti piracy stuff.
Also MS has special windows versions which are cheap for certain nations. EA and many company have this also.

Many companies can not switch to Linux because their accounting software or god knows what software they use are only made for windows. And the accounting software maker says they wont make a Linux version because they say that all their customers use Windows. Not to mention all the excel, word and powerpoint macros I see people use everyday.

As a Student you also get most MS software for free. Just have to bug your Uni or school to register with MSDN AA.

*edit: Also I dont think the sofeware is more expenisve in other countries because of shipping. It might be more expensive do to higher taxes, import taxes but mainly due to having to translate the software to a local languege.

 

Actually, I see *NIX going by the wayside before Microsoft does.

 

Microsoft relies on piracy to keep them in first place, whether they will ever admit to it or not. They let the rest of the world pirate all they want, because that means higher usage and higher dependency. Those costs are then transferred to the "non-undeveloped" countries such as the U.S., and we end up paying $400/seat for Windows and $300/seat for Office.

I'm sure you didn't see this coming rolleyes: ), but I disagree with you. Both Mac and Linux have increased in usage over the past few years, and Linux usage is probably higher than even Mac OS X usage (considering that Linux has sold less than 1% less licenses than Mac and most Linux distros are free of licenses). I honestly think it's going to go the other way, at least in the private and government sectors. Businesses will hang on to Windows for a while, as businesses are always slow to change (many are still using Win2k).

 

Indeed, Linux has the fastest growing userbase of the three mainstream OSes. I won't even consider the fall of *Nix, before Apple fires for bankruptcy.

 

Ok, Offtopic but somehow related:


Ok, i have been a Ubuntu user for three months. i say it's really a stable operating system. the only gripe is majority of business software is not available.

ok, i'm not mocking Ubuntu. It's just other peoeple think of opensource as an alternative method but not the business one as of the moment. see, maintaining an opensource system is quite a pain since many are dveloping it and thereby there are so many versions. My questions would be:

1. Isnt it annoying that with too many variants of linux/unix/etc. customers are somehow confused.

2. Let's put aside Windows, Mac and other commercial OSs, will there by war between variants?

3. What's the matter with selling opensource like Red Hat and Xandros? Arent they supposed to be free since it's opensource?

4. Is it true what critics say that in the near future, opensource are still being digged, develop and "the space monkey" theory wherein opensource developers still develops while "commercial" ones are there giving support and earning money for their living.

5. what can you say about those people criticizing opensource users who "cheat" by having a second or third partition containing Windows and using it while nobody is looking?

6. Last, Is it really true that opensource is propaganda?

Ok, these are just some of my readings about the current situation.

 

I can see Intel and AMD going away before Microsoft.

Also, I don't see why there should be all this hype about a Google OS. Application layer development is very different from kernel level development, and Google is unproven in the latter. Finally, I've seen at least half a dozen users complain about Google Desktop crashing their OS on this forum alone, so that's an indication that Google isn't fool proof either.

 

Agreed. Especially AMD, as they are now overburdened with massive overhead and nothing really competitive coming down the pipe from them. If their market share continues to degrade, they may end up being swallowed by the ATi loan. This is not something I wish, of course.......


Mike

 

Well the AMD/ATI problem is true but whether things will get better or worse will be determined this year with AMD's new CPU and ATI's position against Nvidia. We have already seen some abysmal benchmarks for ATI's new top of the line graphics but I have heard some say this is due to driver issues, ive seen the benchmarks and it might be true as the issues seem similar to their pre-9700 days.

As for microsoft, well i really love how companies make ppl believe that piracy is driving them to raise their prices lol this is just hilarious really. prices have always been this high. for example look at the console industry, they used to use cartridges which arent so easy to copy especially home-made copies yet their prices were about the same as they are now. If costs such as piracy are passed to the customer then why aren't they passed WHEN the "pirates" actually come out with the methods to pirate the merchandise, not before. Cuz we all know they want to charge more for so-called lost revenue which in reality isnt lost cuz they never had it in the first place. your typical piracy user isnt going to just head down and buy his movies, games, operating systems at full price if he cant get them cheaper or free cuz of some super protection they invent. this person pirates for two reasons, he cant afford everything so he may buy some legit and some pirated or he cant afford anything so he pirates near 100%. they know this which is why they won't develop anti-piracy methods that fully eliminate this "problem".

So as long as Microsoft's Windows and Office products are being used both legit and pirated, it is to Microsoft's advantage. If you can use a widely compatible, reasonably reliable and popular operating system for free with little gripe about piracy, then why bother learning to use a less compatible, less popular operating system? this makes Windows more widely used, in the future when this person might have the money to buy a system that comes with Windows, he just might do that instead of buying a system without one and installing Linux cuz he had to learn how to use it cuz Windows genuine advantage or whatever killed his pirated version. Microsoft and other companies as well arent worried about the current user of their product, but about the future user cuz thats where they get their revenue from, future purchasers. the current user has already bought/pirated his copy so they can't profit from him/her at the moment but the future user hasnt spent his money yet. so as long as Microsoft only act serious about piracy, they'll still be around for a long time unless some major catastrophe brings it down, but it wont be due to lack of sale/popularity

 

Just curious, but what kind of business software are we talking about here?

Not neccesarily. Open source simply means that the source code is available. It doesn't neccesarily mean that everyone has the right to *use* the program. (A trivial example might be any GPL-licensed software. The source code is free for all to look at, but you can only *use* it if you also license the rest of your app under GPL as well, and make all your own source code available.
this isn't a financial requirement (like, pay us money to use our software), but still "stuff you have to do to use our software".

Not sure what you mean here.

To some, open source is a religion and a lifestyle, and it's a most heinous crime to even look at closed-source software.
To others, it's simply a source of quality software, one with a lot of benefits, but which also lacks a few things only found in closed-source software. And so, they use closed-source software as well.

Define propaganda.

 

The difference is that in the automotive world, all the competitors are drop-in compatible. I can go buy a Volvo, Peugeot or Hyundai, and *still drive on the same roads, use the same gas stations and fit the same passengers inside, and even use the same drivers license*.

In the OS world, I don't have that luxury. If I want to switch away from Windows, I have to switch to a different road network too, so to speak.
If it was that difficult to switch to another brand of cars, I think Ford would still be doing great.

 

Maybe one day Microsoft and Linux will merge together.

 

Winux? Lindows?

I don't think so. Microsoft will either kill Linux through unfair business practices or Linux overwhelms Windows in popularity and market share. Them merging seems very unlikely.

 

ok, to be more precise for example, Adobe PhotoShop. Most graphics/design companies will surely post job listings as "Knowledgeable" in PhotoShop... and PhotoShop runs in... we know. And that forces consumers to take PhotoShop favoring commercial OSs that can handle PhotoShop. Another is games... a plethora of entertainment for everyone. Most game developers revolve its "business side" on developing for Windows. Another is, "they commonly" say businesses don't trust open source. Most websites i'm seeing are being run by Microsoft Technology like IIS and .Net outnumbering those of other third parties... And many many many more others.

A campaign directed at a targeted audience designed to influence opinions, beliefs and emotions to bring specific alterations in behavior. False or partly false information used by one body or group of organization intended to sway the opinions of the population. And I think the most common goal of open source is to slash commercial software into pieces. mostly because of high prices and sometimes "envy" and/or "hatred".