by Perry Longinotti
Macworld is right around the corner and for tech pundits like me this means that open season on prognosticating has arrived. The pursuit of Apple leaks this time of year is a perk that comes with Apple fanboyism. The practical among us will wonder why we bother, but the answer is simple - it's fun.
No other company in the world has the ability to delight its audiences with new products the way Apple does. These yearly revelations include home run hits and the occasional head-scratcher. Regardless of the outcome, half of the fun is in guessing what new product might be introduced and what existing product will get an update.
This fanaticism even extends to the ring master of Apple's annual circus, Mr. Steve Jobs. Apple's messianic leader, who quarterbacked the company's miraculous return from the jaws of death less than a decade ago, takes center stage whenever there are good announcements to be made. With his key note confirmed several weeks ago, we know there is going to be good stuff for stock holders, fan boys and Apple haters alike.
Famous for his reality distortion field, whereby seemingly innocuous announcements are greeted by standing ovations and raucous applause, Jobs has a charisma that is 'fuori classe.' He is in a different league than the other CEOs, essentially the Michael Jordan or Wayne Gretzky of the tech sector. Not only does he have superior hype-generating skills, he can sell his product in a way the average consumer understands. What's that, you want more hyperbole? Steve Jobs is the best sales person in the world. Furthermore he is fantastically adept at keeping his talented workforce focused and secretive.
As someone that watches the industry with an eagle eye I convince myself each year that I might get some predictions right, but those are just my delusions. In reality I only ever one or two small bits partially right. Like a fantasy sports fan that thinks he or she could GM a successful pro sports franchise, this is really just spare time fun with sports elements replaced by tech (and Apple specifically).
So with that disclaimer out of the way and for those of you left reading this article I give you my predictions. Enjoy!
Sure Bet Announcements:
- Jobs will announce some terrific sales results, probably another record quarter for Mac and iPod. Items that will be singled out: iPhone, iPod Touch, iPod Nano, new iMac and the continued success of the portable lineup. Notebooks will represent proportionally more of overall sales, continuing a long trend in Apple's sales mix.
( view large image)
- MacBook Pros and Mac Pros will get CPU updates in the form of Intel's Core 2 and XEON die shrink (Penryn and Wolfdale). Intel’s Tick Tock road map continues to move with the desired clockwork precision and this has paid huge dividends for Apple whose products are no longer crippled by PowerPC.
Yeah, I know these are pretty safe predictions, but you have to start somewhere.
Highly Likely:
- LED back lights will be in all Apple LCD products by April. This includes displays and notebooks.
- Further green initiatives. Related to the LED announcement - there might be a small marketing push around this (perhaps an endorsement of some kind). Intel's performance per Watt might also come up. Jobs issued a statement in May saying that Apple was committed to becoming a greener corporate citizen, what ever that entails or however they envision that, I would expect there to be substantive changes or procedures in place before the one year anniversary of the statement.
- Many have been calling for a MacBook Pro sub-notebook, a spiritual successor to the 12 PowerBook. I don't think we will see that need addressed from within the MacBook Pro line. Small notebooks (as much as I personally like them) are a small portion of the overall market and tend to cost a premium.
- MacBook refresh with LED back lighting. The 13" display size is a good compromise between the 12" and 14" iBooks that preceded it. I don't think any new screen sizes will be announced.
Not too crazy:
- HSDPA modems from AT&T for MacBook Pros and perhaps a subsidy plan available direct from the Apple Store. Given the iPhone partnership I am surprised this has not already happened. Apple can handle activations; they have a long term deal with AT&T, why stop at the iPhone?
- More details on the Apple iPhone/iPod Touch SDK and how applications will be distributed. My guess is that native apps will need to pass a quality control certification, much like games for video game consoles. Certified products will be distributed electronically via Apple's existing infrastructure; iTMS.
That's crazy talk:
- There are many rumours circulating of a ultra portable MacBook Pro. I don't think that is what we will get. Instead, I think we will see the 'MacBook Touch.'
Artist's "fake" MacBook Touch (view large image)
- MacBook Touch: If you have used an iPhone or iPod Touch you might understand the enormous potential of this device type - I think Apple understands it now even if it caught them by surprise. Multi-touch is going to be huge and pervasive in the apple lineup - it is just getting started. This device will be a 10-12" tablet form factor PC whose appearance will be similar to the iPod Touch (only bigger). It will have a glass front with black trim (with a single 'Home' button) and a matte aluminum posterior. Input will be through multi-touch (but it will have host USB for attaching a keyboard). The interface will be more like the iPod than Leopard’s desktop. It will be simplified and fast. It will not have any moving parts, instead relying on 32 or 64 GB of flash memory. Like an iPod Touch, there will be almost zero start up time. I expect the CPU will be an Intel ARM or low power X86 chip (more likely the latter as Intel attempts to displace ARM in the lower power device space). The clock-speed will be 1.0-1.2 GHz to keep temps down and avoid the use of active cooling. Battery life will be 6-8 hours. Wireless will be 802.11x, Bluetooth and possible a data service from AT&T designed just for this device.
- 10-12" LED LCD featuring Multi-touch - personally I think the 10" would be good, but a 12" would fit a hole in Apple's portable lineup better
- 32 or 64 GB of Flash memory
- Glass and brushed aluminum construction
- OSX 'light' the embedded version of the Mac OS rather than full Leopard
- 1 - 1.2 GHz CPU - Intel x86 or ARM core
- Long battery life, 6-8 hours
- 802.11abgn, Bluetooth (including stereo audio profile), Built-in HSDPA (optional)
- MagSafe adapter, and possibly a nice minimalistic dock (think bigger iPod dock)
- User friendly remote access between the MacBook Touch and a host device.
- MacBook Touch: It will have iWork applications embedded (or they will be available for purchase at launch). Applications will be bought and installed through the iTunes store. When plugged into a Mac or Windows PC a large portion of memory will be available for copying files over. Apple's iSync and .Mac services would really flesh this product out.
- MacBook Touch: This is a companion device. It does not replace a desktop, but it might replace a notebook for many people. It is the fully realized version of a device that Bill Gates described to the media several years ago prior to the launch of TabletPC.
- As Apple's stock price continues to soar, there might be some talk (and worry) of succession planning at the top. Although I think it is really early to think of Jobs retiring, he probably has a pretty good idea who the next person at the helm should be. We might start to see Jobs share the spot light with his protege and seeming heir apparent, Jonathan Ives. Jobs has handed the reigns of Apple over to a pure business person once already in the past and that was a disaster. What Apple needs after Jobs, if the company's steep upward trajectory is to be continued, is a person with similar drive and vision to that of Jobs. Right now there only appears to be one person that even comes close to fitting those shoes.
Those are my picks, but frankly I am more interested to hear yours. Years have passed since I knew anyone at Cupertino, and those folks would have never uttered even a hint of what was coming (believe me I tried at the time). So this has been an exercise in playful cloud watching and what-if'ing.
What do you, our valued reader, think will be unveiled at Macworld? Let the games begin!
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JabbaJabba ThinkPad Facilitator
Interesting predictions. Especially the one about the so-called ultraportable Macbook being a "Macbook Touch" instead. Interesting concept, but I for one would be disappointed if that should happen. A gigantic iPod/iPhone is not high on my wishlist.
IMO, a 11-12 inch traditional form factor notebook weighing less than 3 lbs would be a winner. -
I'm not totally sure we'll see a Mac Tablet, I'd lean towards seeing a Mac ultraportable. However, I would love to see you be right.
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Jerry Jackson Administrator NBR Reviewer
I really like the concept of the "MacBook Touch" but somehow I doubt Apple is smart enough to actually produce something like that.
We'll probably just see a 12"-13" MacBook with a touchscreen mounted on a swivel hinge. Think Apple's version of the new Dell XT tablet. -
You fanboy
No really it sounds like fun, if I could go. -
iMac Touch might be a better name for it.
IMO: releasing anything resembling a sub-notebook as we know it would be too easy and would just erode the sales of the existing line-up. It would not substantially create any new business.
Apple is like Nintendo in that they are a category buster. That is what I expect in January; something that creates a new category. -
I have to say you put alot of thought into this. But here is my rebuttle...(Note: I am a Mac hater for one simple reason...they suck at becoming a multi-billion dollar evil corporation that could take over the world, and put Microsoft in its place. I personally think if Mac could develop MacOS for the PC they would blow Microsoft out of the water. But they just seem to keep giving into Microsoft, by making products such as BootCamp, and iTunes for Windows...I personally think Mac products are also a little too overpriced, for what you get. Also Mac is notorious for taking exisiting products and making them pretty and selling them at double the cost.)
So my rebuttle goes like this. I will start from the bottom down. We have yet to see a product like the MacBook Touch. Why you may ask? 1. Apple sucks at developing products like these. They finally got the iPhone out after years of delay.
Mac computers moving to a new die shrink ie. Penryn, is very unlikely since it took them quite a while to move to Intel, two years after announcing it.... and they moved to the Santa Rosa platform several months after it came out into the market. So to change their entire line up to Penryn is unlikely for 2008.
Everything else you said seems reasonable and warranted, provided the fact that things like the iPhone SDK should have been in final release before the products came out, and they should have alot less restrictions on the iPhone and iPod Touch since many enthusiasts use it and like to play aound with different applications.
I think Mac is fresh out of ideas for this year or not out of ideas, but rather revolutionary world stopping ideas. But, hey...you never know. -
Its funny, I was a Product Manager at an audio company when the Ipod came out. I remember going to CES and hitting the low rent district (companies not in one of the main halls) and seeing all kinds of bulky ponderous ulgy MP3 players or svelt devices that could hold 10 songs on their meagre memory and thinking to myself 'who would buy one of those?'
When Jobs announced the iPod, I saw a slightly thinner device with a better interface but thought it no more desirable than the others. Boy, was I wrong.
The TV product seems to have failed. I think Apple needs something cool to distract folks away from that product. What comes out might initially be a head scratcher, but if it is what I think it is...
All I know is that my iPod Touch is better at the computing tasks I do 90% of the time, than my ThinkPad. The only thing that would make it better is 'more.' -
The Apple TV isn't working out because Apple overpriced it completely, and lacked some major features...if Apple rolls out something like an iTunes movie rental service, the Apple TV would be much more worthwhile.
I'm looking at a Mac ultraportable for Macworld. Maybe something "different" with the trackpad (to incorporate some multi-touch gestures, as rumoured by 9to5 Mac), but yeah, I'm not expecting a tablet. -
Apple TV + Cinema Display = Good product
What do you think? It might be a good way for Apple to enter a crowded market and differentiate themselves. -
I agree with Sam. I'm inclined to believe the rumors from 9to5, and I think we will see an ultraportable with LED backlighting, a Macbook keyboard, integrated graphics, and no optical drive. If it's not an ultraportable, it might be a replacement for the Macbook.
It's plausible that they'll release a tablet though. People have been asking for these for years, and the Dell Latitude XT seems like a solid offering. Apple does well in taking existing concepts, and making them simpler, prettier, and/or better. -
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Goldman Sachs seems to think the Apple TV will get a screen of some kind.
Goldman Sachs says second-gen iPhone is in "final design phase," Apple TV to get LCD screen -
ltcommander_data Notebook Deity
As a Canadian, I'm hoping that with our strong dollar, Apple decides to readjust their pricing to achieve price parity between the Canadian and American stores or at least something closer to it. We had a nice 2 month stink above the US dollar and even now the Canadian dollar is at a bit better than $0.98 USD, so it'd be nice if we didn't have to pay the 10% premium that Apple seems to be charging. It's probably in Apple's best interest anyways since price parity combined with the upcoming GST drop will help drive Canadian Apple sales. I hate to harp, but if you care about this issue, you can let Apple know through their feedback pages as I have done.
Anyways, in regards to hardware announcements, I think there is going to be some movement on the Mac Mini. It's already overdo for an update with it lacking 802.11n and still using Napa Meroms. The very least they could do is move to Santa Rosa with the GMA X3100. But, with the constant rumours of them discontinuing it, I think it's likely that it'll be replaced. I can see them rolling the Mac Mini into the AppleTV as a more full featured Home Theater Mac, although that really wouldn't solve the price impediment of the AppleTV, and wouldn't leave Apple with a dedicated entry level model. I'm hoping that they'll decide to expand the Mac Mini, possibly making a mini Cube. They could make maybe double the size of the Mini, which would still make it smaller than a ShuttlePC. Keep using mobile CPUs and HDDs for thermal reasons, but make the thing user upgradable, with 1 PCIe x16 (single slot for space), 2 SODIMM slots, space for 2 2.5" HDDs with RAID support, and since they have the room, through in 1 or 2 more USB slots and possibly a memory card reader. Use of mobile parts ensures it won't overshadow the iMac or canabolize Mac Pro sales. And this really shouldn't add much to the cost of the Mac Mini since Apple can still keep including bare bones components as stock, just that it's easier to upgrade now. Of course, the usefulness of a graphics card expansion slot is dependent on ATI and nVidia releasing more Mac graphics cards, since I'm pretty sure the average PC card doesn't have a video BIOS that will recognize EFI. -
I hope you're wrong because I'm planning on purchasing the ultraportable.
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i hope penryn MBP are announced in january -
ltcommander_data Notebook Deity
Rather than Apple being last with new Intel chips, they have actually been consistently first. Cases like the Mac Pro receiving 3GHz Cloverton chips even when they weren't even advertised as existing on the Intel website for several months. The iMac was also one of the first, if not the first computers to ship with the 2.8GHz Mobile Core 2 Duo Extreme on the Merom core. Similarly, I'm pretty sure the MacBook Pro is one of the first laptops to use the 2.6GHz T7800 Core 2 Duo (non-extreme edition with regular 35W TDP).
I don't know for certain, but if you have seen the problems Intel has been having developing drivers to activate hardware DX9 acceleration of the GMA X3100 on Windows, which they still haven't really accomplished, it becomes very likely that the delay in refreshing the MacBook to the Santa Rosa platform was not processor availability, but because Apple didn't want to release a system based on the GMA X3100 without some semblance of a decent driver.
In terms of when we will see Penryn, it's almost a given that we'll see Harperton on the Mac Pro and Xeons at Macworld. It is true that there has been a bit of a delay, 2 months if it launches in January, but we won't know if it's justified or not until we see whether there is a case redesign or the rumoured 10.5.2 to add SSE4 support. I actually have a suspicion that the delay might be that Apple wants to move the Mac Pro to the Skulltrail platform, which is Intel's upcoming high-end desktop platform, with lower latency FB-DIMMs since the Mac Pro really doesn't need all the redundancy features of the Xeon platform. Apple working with nVidia and or ATI to get SLI/Crossfire working in OS X is another possibility.
A Penryn refresh of the MacBook Pro is quite likely since it was last refreshed in June, and it's now lived it's average 6-7 month product cycle. The only thing holding it back is whether Apple wants to be involved in the Montevina launch in Q2 2008, which will bring 1067MHz Penryns and DDR3. Given the tight proximity, Apple will likely have to pick one to jump on, although it is possible that they could do both since the 800MHz Penryns coming January are just drop-in replacements for the 800MHz Meroms so it's not really a huge logistical or design burden. -
Just to add to the Penryn debate...moving to Penryn isn't as complicated as moving to the COMPLETE Santa Rosa platform. The first iterations of Penryn (on the PC side anyway) will just be Penryn CPUs on the Santa Rosa platform (ie: chipset/wifi/etc.). And considering the current age of MBP systems, it's easily due for atleast the CPU speed bump associated w/ Penryn CPUs.
As for Macbook Touch, that would definitely be interesting...for the the right price I'd be sold on it. I just can't see paying more than $1000-$1200 for what could be a crippled laptop with a fancy touchscreen interface. Since there were rumors floating around of the new Macbook weighing in @ $1500, I would hope it's carrying the full fledged Leopard OSX. -
If they make a Mac Tablet PC, im hoping they make it like the convertable ones, so it can at least still be used like a laptop, and that it features the wacom digitizer so it at least has some use for artists, which is one of the main people apple caters to, the design field.
I know this is wishful thinking but if they could compete on price like dell and HP, they would really get their products popular. -
With the launch of Core 2 Duo and the release of the Santa Rosa platform in their respective times, Apple updated their Macs pretty quickly after the launches (of course, the MacBook lagged behind for the Santa Rosa launch). I agree that the entire lineup won't suddenly go Penryn (as the MacBook was just updated in November), but most likely the MBP and Mac Pro and possibly the iMac will be updated to Penryn processors soon after the launch (which could be as soon as Macworld, as Penryn launches before that). -
ALL I WANT IS A NEW GPU FOR THE MBP FOR JUNE!
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ltcommander_data Notebook Deity
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I thought the 8600 was pretty sweet. That and the LED backlit screen made it a real test of my resolve not to buy one.
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Woah! I just realized you're in Antarctica. That's crazy. How is that working out for you?
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Just so you guys know. A general rule of buisness says don't announce your product unless your sure it can be released within six months. That is why Microsoft gets heavily criticised when they announce there operating systems years before they release them. So just because Apple announced a product and was able to deliver it, does not mean it has not been working on it for quite a while. The iPhone was in development ever since the third generation iPods were released. It was talked about in insider trading circles (which are illegal and generally why they don't reach the public).
You are correct about Mac's switch to Intel. They had planned it well before they announced it and their switc was driven by a falling out with IBM based on a contract renewal that was set for 2005. They originally had it planned from mid 2004 but were waiting for a viable processor to come from Intel. Don't bring in server processors into the mix because we are talking about consumer products here.
Their transition to Santa Rosa was slower than any other computer manufacturer, so I cannot see how your arguments that they always adopt first makes any sense. I could care less if Apple wanted to ensure that Intel made fully functional drivers. Thats not how buisness works... Unfortunatley!
I am quite sure that Apple will not transition to Penryn right off the bat. A simple processor switch as one of you mentioned, is not as simple as it seems. Mac also does not sell all their stock at once. They will begin development and it will be released as soon as new orders are coming in from resellers and distributors. -
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Apple will never do a convertible tablet, for whoever asked that. If they do a tablet (I think its inevitable that they will, but not this year...) it will be a multitouch slate tablet with a capacitive touchscreen. Maybe an active digitizer as well, but thats not a sure thing.
The MBP needs an update, badly. The design is now, what, 5 years old? The Al PB G4s came out in 2003 for chrissake! Lets have a new design, guys! I don't think its gonna come with Penryn though - a chassis update along with Montevina seems more probable. -
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well the movie rental service on the itunes service to me looks like a promising prospect
whereas apple usually outdoes itself in the cool factor
so most probably even if they do make a tablet or an ultra portable it will be one heck of a ultraportable i presume
well yeah the design of the pros is quite old yet you cant deny it is definately appealing and hll slim too
why change whats alreafy got demand as well as got demand but then again you cant be too sure
its apple were talking bout! -
Yeah, some more flexible iTMS pricing and memory bumps to the iPhone might be good candidates too.
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when do you guys figure the macbook pro will be updated?
is it worth waiting for if i need a laptop fairly pressingly? -
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Yep, hardware wise, the MBP is pretty much set until mid-2009, when Capella (Nehalem for notebooks) comes out.
And as good as the MBP casing is, it is direly in need of a redesign. If any other manufacturer kept the same design for 5 years, they would have been skewered for a lack of originality and whatnot. -
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They'll do a tablet, just not a convertible one.
How do I know? I guess its not actually knowing, its more just having a hypothesis strong to the point of being sure of the fact. Convertible tablets simply are not elegant, or slick, or beautiful. Yes, the fact that the screens will rotate and fall flat is kinda nifty, and sometimes rather useful, but by no means elegant. And elegance is probably the top priority at Apple. Also, its thick, and Apple's second highest priority is to be thin. Also, theres no way to do it so that it actually looks like it was made by Apple - the screen bezel is a problem, as is the rotating hinge at the base of the screen. The odds are just so stacked against Apple doing a convertible tablet that its essentially been written off and is now completely out of the picture.
If Apple does a tablet, it will be a glass screened, capacitive touch (read: multitouch) slate tablet somewhat similar to the ModBook. Except better, and in all likelihood, cheaper as well.
Apple doing a convertible tablet is like them doing a smaller than the Mac Pro, tower based desktop - its not gonna happen. -
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Hmm, maybe it is possible. But seriously, it wouldn't be that much more powerful than the iMac (if at all) and not nearly as elegant. The MacPro makes sense in that regard, since you actually cannot fit that much power into an AIO, but a smaller tower wouldn't really have much better specs than the iMac, and probably would cost about the same...Its got a higher likelihood of coming out than the convertible tablet though.
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The Forerunner Notebook Virtuoso
Yeah, I thought Asus was making Apple's tablet. Wasn't this announced a few weeks ago?
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I'd like to see a new BASE MBP with Intel's new 2.5Ghz Penryn and a 35W TDP Geforce 8800 GT 256MB for sh*t and giggles. (same TDP as 8600 GT, anyway.)
All in January or June at the latest. -
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I have a prediction. I predict that I will be severely disappointed this time around, just like last time. I'm really looking for an ultraportable to compete with the X61t, even if the form factor is different (ie, not a convertible tablet, but has a touchscreen a la Dell's new capacitative touch screen or iPhone). Really though I just want to be wowed by something like I was when the video iPod came out.
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Quanta does the MBPs.
As for that prediction, its actually pretty likely that the base MBP will get either the 2.4 or 2.5GHz Penryn....Either the T9300 or T9500. What I want to see is for them to move the VRAM of the 8600GT to 256 and 512MB on the lower and higher ends, respectively. That would be great. -
Yes Quanta does make a majority of Apple's laptops, but they still have a few other manufacturers making some, especially special design ones. Asus is not working on a tablet but a small form or ULPC for Apple. I know of rumors about a Tablet but then again... they are unconfirmed rumors.
As a reply to what one member said earlier, the production of the iPhone was not an unwaranted rumor. It was known about for a couple of years before it was announced.
Anyway...Mac needs to drop the price of their products. -
They do not really need to drop the price of their products, since their pricing is pretty competitive with the rest of the market. The MB isn't too far off the CR and dv2500 in terms of pricing, and the MBP is peerless, and worth every penny it costs. The closest thing to the MBP, as far as a potential competitor might be, is the Asus V1S, which is a rather flawed and problematic notebook, and still it costs only $100 less.
On the desktop side, the iMac is still the best all in one, and one of the least expensive too. The Mac Pro is pretty pricey though, I must admit.
Predictions for MacWorld 2008
Discussion in 'Notebook News and Reviews' started by lewdvig, Dec 12, 2007.