Parts Shortages Mean Even Longer Delays

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Reporters for DigiTimes have broken the story that multiple notebook component suppliers are suffering serious shortages ... which means notebook manufacturers like Dell, HP and others will have to suffer through shipping delays. Of course, the bottom line is that customers will have to suffer the most. The parts shortages are coming just in time for &quot;back to school&quot; buyers leaving students without notebooks for class.

image courtesy of silicon.com

Everything from LCD display panels and batteries to circuit boards and optical drives seem to be in short supply at the moment. Acer is reporting shortages of GPUs from AMD and Nvidia while both Acer and HP are reporting shortages of 12.1&quot; notebook displays.

When Will Things Get Better?

As if to add insult to injury for customers, Compal Electronics is reporting that &quot;component shortages should persist through October&quot; and leading notebook battery suppliers Dynapack International Technology, Celxpert Energy and Simplo Technology Company aren't expected to supply enough batteries to keep up with demand until 2008.

Who is to Blame?

Some experts are blaming the parts shortages on the unexpected growth of demand for notebook computers around the world. Others are blaming manufacturers such as Dell for keeping only 1-2 weeks of parts inventory on hand ... the &quot;lean&quot; manufacturing policies such as only ordering parts as you need them may indeed have contributed to the delays we're seeing now.

Of course, if you recall anything from your Economics 101 class you should remember what decreased supply and increased demand means for consumers. If demand remains robust and supplies short, prices will likely be forced up a bit ... just in time for the holiday buying season.

 

Wonderful...

 

so dell could pretty much send all the workers in there factories on vacation? I really wonder what the are doing at the moment because especially here in the Netherlands not much is coming out of the factory to us..

 

Precisely . . .. especially the price increase part . . . ..

*Sarcasm*

 

I guess Dell's concept of Build-To-Order notebooks has bite them in the ass this year.

 

I love that THEY will probably increase the prices for the holidays even though it was THEIR fault this happened in the first place.

 

Have any other companies experienced delays in shipping besides Dell thus far. Dell is the only one that I have heard complaints on shipping Dell-ays recently. May be other companies will have delays soon though sounds like. I'm glad I have no plans to order a new notebook for a few months.

 

The battery issue is aggravated by the fact Sony is getting out of the business and there's fewer suppliers. To a certain degree these parts suppliers can create a benefit to themselves by slowing down production so that they can charge higher prices -- sort of like OPEC can do with oil. I don't think there's that much collusion among parts suppliers though.

There's apparently also a notebook keyboard shortage according to Dell: http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=41246

now that's whack, keyboards should be easy to quickly make more of. LCDs and memory I can understand you can only make so many given the manufacturing process time.

 

Lenovo for one. You could see certain retail stores having empty shelves where they stocked an Acer notebook in the past since the article quotes the fact Acer has problems too.

I'm still waiting for Nintendo to catch up on production to meet demand for the Wii too, business is good for the plants over in China it seems.

 

While it's fair to say that lean manufacturing methods such as keeping minimal parts inventory on hand has "contributed" to the parts shortages we're seeing now I don't think all blame rests with manufacturers like Dell, Lenovo, Acer and others.

It's true that demand for notebooks has increased more rapidly than anyone predicted. Notebooks have replaced desktops as the primary computer purchase for most consumers and businesses in the US. Right now desktops are only being purchased as low-budget computers, gaming systems, graphics workstations, or servers. Within 10 years you will probably have a hard time finding desktops in most electronics stores in the US. Demand for notebooks is also increasing worldwide.

Yes, manufacturers share part of the blame because they've been trying to cut production costs by keeping fewer parts on hand, but suppliers share blame for letting their production and inventories drop as orders became smaller and consumers are also to blame for increased demand.

 

Chinese manufacturing standards are also going to be heavily regulated in the future due to that Mattel scare. Thus, costs may have to increase, to implement the various safety measures required to prove that "Made In China" doesn't require a heath warning attached to it too.

 

I think one question I have, regarding Dell and their slim production techniques, is how fast do parts become obsolete? If they had months worth of products ready in reserves, how badly could that affect their bottom line if they didn't sell them before newer, better parts were developed? There must be some logic involved, although I'm sure they didn't plan on suppliers having shortages.

 

Most component manufacturers (particularly CPU and GPU companies like Intel, AMD and Nvidia) release new products on a VERY cyclical/seasonal schedule. Companies like HP, Dell, Lenovo, etc. know when to expect new chips so they know when not to keep a huge inventory on hand.

I don't think they are worried about "component obsolescence" as much as they are worried about "excess inventory."

 

I guess that I am extremely lucky that I ordered my 1520 the second day it came out and now I have it for school. That blows that students won't be able to get their laptops in time to start class (maybe not even until part way through the semester).

 

Here in the US at least there is still a reasonable supply of pre-configured notebooks in retail stores. So, if you "need" a notebook for school you can still get one. Unfortunately, it might not be the notebook you want and it might not have have latest CPU or GPU or it may lack a feature that you really wanted.

 

I'm always leery of shortages. That California energy crisis was partially caused by Enron's shady dealings, and the current gasoline prices are caused by "increased demand."

 

Did you ever wonder who is going to take your old computer and burn it up?

All the toxic and electronic waste that 3rd world countries have to do.

 

Since I've never thrown a computer out, I've no cause to wonder.

 

I was THIS close to just buying some stupid $500 machine to get by, but Lenovo finally got my machine to me.

 

At an MBA lecture last year, the professor showed how Dell is one of the few companies out there with a negative cash cycle (and a pretty big one too, some -55 days). so each time you buy a laptop, they get to take out an interest-free loan from their suppliers (first they clear your credit card payment, then they order, and 3 months later they settle).

 

that's the way I look at it. Most Notebooks are fairly similar anyways. You want a notebook, they are there in plenty. You want a customized one, all bets are off!

 

I'm very surprised I got mine when I did, it took under a full 7 day week. From ordering to at my door with standard 3-5 day shipping.

 

ahhhh, maks me glad I just went to the store and got a MBP instead of waiting for that T61p.

 

Is the G1S concerned with this problem?

 

What this means to me is if you were on the fence, waiting for a company like Dell to catch up in production.. Don't!!!

They probably won't catch up so just order when you are ready.

Also I work for one of the big CPU companies so I understand what happens when you start storing too much product

"lean manufacturing" is a way of life for us too! And it won't go away anytime soon.

 

Talk about some serious bad luck as stated in the article to be having parts shortages during back to school and with the holiday season looming up ahead (As soon as school starts Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas seem to come and go fast.). I'm not optimistic these problems will be corrected until next year sometime when the cycle will ultimately repeat itself with new hardware coming out.

 

I ordered my t61p on Tuesday July 22, and it left Hong Kong 2 days later. I guess I just got lucky...

 

Glad I ordered my Dell when I did, seems like the delays are only getting worse. Another two weeks and there might not've been enough time.

Can't say I'm too sad to see Sony leaving the battery industry, though. Seems like every few months you'd see something in the paper about a Sony battery recall or Sony batteries blowing up, compared to never seeing that with other companies' batteries.

 

Damn, why the heck can't those companies estimate the development of a market? Smells like OPEC-wannabees to me.

 

Could it be that someone else... lets say apple... is finally buildning this ultra-portable, and is therefore buying certain components, like 12-inch screens in order to deliver from the very beginning... Lets say second tuesday in october along with the release of leopard

 

Yeah, I'm very happy about having my new apple ready for school and what not.

 

Why bother with waiting for parts ? just move to next gen notebooks .

No kidding , I can't seem to find any exciting offering , not even in the high price range . *yawn*

 

I ordered mine from Amazon and got it two days later And its not an off-the-shelf beater.

 

erm...no.

Apple has a tiny market share currently less than 10%. Even if it soared past 20%, Apple wont bet all their apples on a single ultra portable. If they did create one, it would do extremely well - but it wouldnt be enough to create this stock shortage we are seeing industry wide.

 

I'm glad I bought my SZ6 instead of trying to wait it out on Dell...with my starting school next week.

 

I'm glad I ordered early and got my dell on time?